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With ever more merchant ships trying to hide their movements from the authorities, a new way of monitoring this shadow fleet is needed. AI-enabled 'Persistent tracking' technology could be the answer, writes Steve Bomgardner
The simplicity of automatic identification system (AIS) tracking has transformed the accessibility of vessel tracking over the past few decades. But in today's overcrowded and high-risk seas, that simplicity is now a liability.
Disabling, jamming, or spoofing AIS signals is too easy, leading to inconsistencies in vessel tracking data. This allows bad actors to operate unchecked, while also compromising the safety of legitimate vessels. In addition, signal blockages caused by the congestion of transmitted positions are leading to significant gaps in global tracking systems, creating an unacceptable level of risk.
AIS and the shadow fleet
This problem is being compounded by the expansion of the 'shadow fleet' – also known as the 'dark fleet' or 'grey fleet' – which consists of vessels seeking to avoid the usual international regulation and monitoring systems.
There is a longstanding dark shipping problem which aims to hide illegal activity (people, arms, drugs, contraband and fish smuggling). Recently, new conflict zones in the Red Sea, Black Sea and South China Sea have greatly increased the number of vessels wishing to conceal their movements – for example, those undertaking illegal ship-to-ship transfers of sanctioned Russian oil and liquefied natural gas.
EXPLAINER: AIS vs AI
AIS stands for automatic identification system – radio-based technology that allows ships to broadcast their position and other information to neighbouring ships and shore stations. AIS is used to monitor and track ships in real time, and is an important safety feature that helps to avoid collisions.
AI, on the other hand, stands for artificial intelligence. AI works by simulating human intelligence through the use of algorithms, data, and computational power. The goal is to enable machines or software to perform tasks such as learning, reasoning, problem-solving, perception and language understanding. AI is particularly useful for aggregating and repurposing very large amounts of data.
Even ship masters on legitimate vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are switching off AIS tracking in a bid to avoid being targeted by the Houthi rebels attacking merchant shipping. While this may remove immediate vulnerability to this threat, ships operating without AIS significantly raise the risk of collision, with associated potential loss of life and environmental damage, as well as creating supply chain uncertainty.
The lack of transparency in shipping is now of global concern to those governments and stakeholders who wish to operate in compliance. This creates a divide between good actors and bad actors. The shift of Russian oil tankers from large open registries to smaller, less diligent flags in response to heightened sanctions from the USA, EU, UK and others highlights the growing challenges. These developments are complicating efforts by the International Maritime Organization and national regulatory bodies attempting to reinstate order.
Persistent tracking: a hi-tech alternative
While the need to improve shipping transparency is a given, solving it is far from straightforward. The industry urgently needs a stronger solution. This solution should combine multiple tracking data sources supplemented at times with affordable Earth-observation (EO) data. The goal is to deliver persistent tracking of every vessel without compromise.
Persistent tracking overlays multiple vessel tracking services and data sources. This includes AIS and secure point-to-point satellite tracking systems (Inmarsat-C, Iridium, etc.), voyage plans when available, EO data when relevant, and real-time analytics to transform the accuracy and reliability of vessel location data.
Developing a persistent tracking system is typically beyond the capability of a single organisation. It would require data selection, aggregation, management, storage, and processing using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning. With this overall technical complexity and cost, it is best to align with an established specialist application service provider.
Intelligence-led operations
With multiple, layered data sources and robust cross referencing and analysis, the persistent tracking model allows stakeholders to have increased confidence in a vessel’s true position. Guessing is eliminated and errors associated with false positives are minimised, allowing stakeholders to ensure any anomaly or vessel deviation is immediately identified and notified, and open to investigation.
Multiple, diverse vessel detection technologies feed into live dashboards, providing stakeholders with the essential visibility and control required to confidently locate and manage vessels. By adding the power of predictive analytics, artificial intelligence and machine learning, stakeholders can gain far more insight into the extent of dark activity and ensure secure, safe, clean, and compliant operations.
With the rise of compromised security, safety, and environmental compliance, the lack of visibility across seas globally must be urgently addressed. Proposing additional sanctions and greater risk assessment is a necessary start. Yet, without a persistent tracking solution that can layer multiple tracking data streams to overcome the current information gaps, the maritime industry will continue to incur unacceptable risk.
Captain Steve Bomgardner
Capt Steve Bomgardner is a master mariner who now serves as the vice president of shipping and offshore at maritime tech corporation Pole Star Global. He has a particular focus on driving new technology initiatives related to environmental, social and corporate governance, and corporate social responsibility.
Image credit: Pole Star Global
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